Hi Dubai friends,

Welcome to Week 17, Edition 130

Whilst this current situation drags on, hopefully towards a positive conclusion, these newsletters will have a tighter focus on general Dubai news and travel advice.

Please be sure to check the below past editions, as they all have advice, links and explanations about different key points that will help keep you updated and give a few pointers if you’re planning travel or have decisions to make.

PS. You can always email me here also.

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A good amount (around 30%) of global jet fuel is supplied from the Gulf region, which has seen exports reduced by 80% since the start of the Iran conflict.

Even if you’re not planning on travelling through the Middle East this Summer, there’s a fair chance that jet fuel could affect you on two counts :-

I’ve written in a previous edition about the reduction in supply, and pricing is starting to play a part now as Lufthansa this week announced they will cut 20,000 European short-haul flights due to rising fuel prices.

In terms of pricing, not all airlines ‘bulk buy’ jet fuel in advance. Airlines are generally split on the best strategy, either ‘fuel hedging’ - where they buy fuel at a fixed price months, or even years, into the future - or ‘spot market buying’ - where they either try to control their own supply or purchase at whatever the market rate may be as they go.

Broadly speaking, American carriers such as American, Delta and United tend to be spot market buyers, whereas European and Low Cost Carriers such as RyanAir, EasyJet, KLM, Lufthansa and Air France are active hedgers.

Aside from the jet fuel supply and pricing issues, efficiency and ‘load factor’ also comes to the fore. If airlines would normally fly several times a day on a route, and those planes are not full, they would look to increase their ‘load factor’ by having more people onto less flights, hence cancellations and ’shuffling’.

To put it simply, there won’t be many carriers around the world who won’t be looking to optimise their schedules to reduce inefficiencies, minimise the risk of supply issues and to cull less profitable routes such as Lufthansa have done.

Here is a list of airlines currently cancelling flights and adding charges.

Last but not least, increased fares along with taxes, fees and charges could happen. US airlines are already increasing their luggage fees, and even redemption flights (using points or miles) could become more expensive if fuel surcharges are increased.

If you have flights booked this Summer, I would recommend checking the schedules (see the links for recommended methods in recent editions) for your booked flights, as IF you are booked on a flight number that is not presently flying, you could find your flight being cancelled and your booking shifted.

It’s worth bearing in mind, especially whilst the immediate future is uncertain, what your rights are if a booked flight is cancelled.

UK Law covers flights :-

The main takeaway there is if you are booked on a GCC (non-UK or non-EU carrier) flight that is cancelled, the point of departure is pivotal because ex-UK is covered, ex-UAE is not.

Here are a few links that may help to guide you.

Dubai hotels are having to face low occupancy levels and other challenges, which in turn means they have to make big decisions, such as :-

To date, we have :-

Check out this video which has more detail including links and quotes 👇

It could be argued there’s another subtle category - a hotel that doesn’t publicly announce a reduction in operations.

Quite often, some of the ‘news’ will not be on official pages, such as the website of the hotel, but rather by PR to the local media.

Whilst it’s an uncertain time for everyone, and hotels are likely going ‘day by day’ and plans are somewhat fluid, bear in mind if you have a future hotel booking for Dubai it’s always worth calling the hotel to ask pertinent questions such as :-

There are some super-low prices to be had whilst hotels are low occupancy, and also ‘add ons’ such as ‘free’ Half Board.

As with hotels, restaurants are also reducing operations - with ‘temporary pause’ being the watchword.

Atlantis has announced seven venues will temporarily close across Atlantis The Palm and Atlantis The Royal as demand is reviewed, including :-

It’s a very difficult situation for hospitality, as there are so many variables they have to consider, such as how changeable things may be and how fast, and whether to close out early for the off-season or hope things improve quickly. Hence why many will make fluid plans, and thus call them ‘temporary closures’.

It’s not even limited to restaurants either, as Global Village closed down temporarily and has now reopened.

Emirates currently have a waiver in place, allowing rebooking or refunds for flights booked up to 31 May.

They made an announcement on their ‘Travel Updates’ last Wednesday, but this was more about their current Flight Schedules as they are currently operating to 100 destinations.

Whilst it’s hard to predict what decisions they may make on extending the waiver dates, next Monday will be two weeks since their last extension. And the one before that was two weeks previous.

So will they continue that ‘two week’ routine and make a new announcements on Monday? Who knows - your guess is as good as mine!

If I was pressed into ‘taking a punt’, I would say - no announcement. That’s because their last announcement (up to 31 May) give a far longer window than previously, i.e. a six week period. Let’s see …..